From aspiration to action

a multi-country analysis of agroforestry adoption and household welfare among smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa

authored by: Luzia Karin Deißler
supervised by: Ulrike Grote
Abstract: Agriculture is the backbone of livelihoods in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa and smallholder farmers shape these agricultural landscapes. Smallholder agriculture is essential for food security and economic development across the region. However, these farmers face persistent challenges, including poverty, food insecurity, climate vulnerability and environmental degradation. Climate change, marked by erratic weather patterns and extreme events, exacerbates these challenges and threatens the sustainability of farming systems and thereby the welfare of rural households. Agroforestry, the integration of trees and shrubs into agricultural systems, has regained attention as a promising solution for these challenges. It provides multiple ecological and economic benefits, including enhanced soil health, improved biodiversity and greater resilience to climate shocks. Additionally, agroforestry can support household food security, income diversification and sustainable livelihoods by offering a range of products for both market and subsistence use. Despite these advantages, the adoption of agroforestry remains limited, hindered by a complex interplay of socio-economic, institutional, cultural and psychological factors. While socio-economic barriers are well-documented, the role of intrinsic factors in decision-making and the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices is increasingly recognized for the long-term success of development interventions. This research integrates intrinsic factors, such as livelihood aspirations and ambitions, into the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) to provide a more holistic analysis of the decision-making processes of smallholder farmers. The analysis emphasizes gender dynamics, livelihood aspirations, driving ambition and resilience to uncover the drivers of and barriers to adopting sustainable agricultural practices among smallholder farmers in Kenya and Zambia. The research objectives derived for this dissertation are to: (1) examine the role of gender dynamics and intra-household empowerment in shaping household welfare and income control, (2) analyze how personality traits and livelihood aspirations interact to influence farming decisions, (3) assess the influence of ambitions and livelihood aspirations on agroforestry adoption and the resulting impact on household welfare, (4) classify households by resilience levels and identify agroforestry strategies for these clusters, tailored to the specific household needs, and (5) simulate future agroforestry adoption dynamics using an agentbased model that incorporates socio-economic and psychological factors. By employing a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative survey data in structural equation modeling (SEM), logistic regression and agent-based modeling (ABM), this research aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers, development practitioners and organizations striving to improve rural livelihoods and promote resilient and sustainable farming practices. The findings emphasize the importance of intrinsic factors alongside socio-economic and gender dynamics in shaping farmers' decisions. These insights offer a comprehensive basis for designing effective interventions that promote sustainable agricultural development, enhance household welfare, and improve resilience in rural communities. IX The first chapter provides an overview of the dissertation’s motivation, conceptual framework, and research objectives. Chapter 2 examines the African Indigenous Vegetables (AIV) supply chain in Kenya, utilizing data collected in 2015 as part of the HORTINLEA project. This dataset comprises information from 706 smallholder households in rural and peri-urban areas, focusing on socio-economic characteristics, intra-household dynamics, and household welfare. The essay aims to analyze the role of women in the AIV value chain and assess how women’s intra-household empowerment influences household welfare and income control. Using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Generalized Structural Equation Modeling (GSEM), the study examines the role of women in AIV production, analyzes the determinants of women’s intra-household empowerment, and evaluates how empowerment affects household welfare and women’s control over income generated from AIV production. The findings reveal that women’s empowerment, particularly through land ownership and education, enhances household dietary diversity, education spending, and income controlled by women. However, increased commercialization shifts income control towards men, emphasizing the need for gender- sensitive policies to protect and strengthen women’s empowerment in agricultural value chains and promote equitable development. The third chapter aims to investigate how personality traits and aspirations influence smallholder farming decisions in Kenya. Using data collected in 2021 as part of the CIFOR-ICRAF Fruit Tree Portfolios (FTP) project, the study draws on information from 272 rural smallholder households across three regions: Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, and Kitui. Employing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), the chapter explores the relationship between personality traits and livelihood aspirations. The findings reveal that personality traits (openness, extraversion, conscientiousness) significantly shape aspirations, which, in turn, guide farming decisions. Furthermore, it is shown that household and respondent characteristics influence the various dimensions of aspirations differently. This contextualized understanding provides actionable insights for designing targeted development interventions that align with farmers’ intrinsic motivations and support sustainable smallholder livelihoods. Chapter 4 builds on the data from Chapter 3, collected in 2021 as part of the CIFOR-ICRAF Fruit Tree Portfolios (FTP) project. This chapter aims to analyze how livelihood aspirations and ambitions influence the adoption of agroforestry practices and assess the impact of fruit tree adoption on household welfare. Logistic Regression and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) are performed, showing an inverted U-shaped relationship between ambition and adoption likelihood, where medium ambition levels maximize uptake. Directed aspirations positively correlate with agroforestry adoption as well, highlighting their critical role in driving sustainable agricultural practices. Moreover, the integration of fruit trees into farming systems is shown to support livelihoods in various ways by enhancing both income and food security. The chapter concludes that psychological factors strongly associate with agroforestry adoption and household well-being, providing practical insights into how intrinsic factors can be incorporated into development projects to enhance their effectiveness. X Chapter 5 evaluates smallholder farmers' agroforestry adoption potential based on their resilience levels and livelihood aspirations. Data were collected in 2022 from 745 smallholder households across three provinces in Zambia – Eastern, Central and Muchinga – as part of the baseline for the Piloting incentive-based agricultural portfolios for nutrition and resilience in Zambia (PFTP) project. This dataset includes a wide range of variables, such as socio-economic characteristics, livelihood aspirations, and household resilience variables. This chapter aims to evaluate agroforestry adoption potential by classifying households based on resilience levels and identifying strategies tailored to each cluster. Using K-means Clustering, households are grouped into low, medium, and high resilience clusters, each exhibiting distinct socio-economic and psychological characteristics. Applying the 'Livelihood Strategies of the Poor' framework, diverse livelihood strategies based on resilience levels, livelihood aspirations and socio-economic characteristics are identified to support aspirations and ensure longterm sustainability. For instance, low-resilience households could focus on diversifying agricultural portfolios to build climate resilience, while high-resilience households can pursue labor-intensive agroforestry and explore niche markets. The findings underscore the importance of tailored, contextspecific interventions to build resilient agricultural systems and provide actionable recommendations for promoting sustainability and poverty reduction. Chapter 6 builds on the PFTP project dataset, also used in Chapter 5. By creating an Agent-Based Model, the chapter aims to explore the dynamics of adoption, including the role of gender and systemic constraints, and identify strategies for equitable and widespread adoption. The findings show that medium-level ambitions and off-farm aspirations are significant levers in adoption, as they align with goals of income diversification and food security. Conversely, overly low or high ambitions hinder adoption by reducing motivation or creating unattainable expectations. Gender-specific constraints, particularly for female-headed households, limit broader adoption despite their responsiveness to supportive conditions like land size and training. Farmer groups and agricultural training improve adoption rates but remain underutilized. The study emphasizes inclusive, community-based strategies that address gender barriers, labor demands, and financial constraints to foster resilience and promote scalable agroforestry adoption effectively. Collectively, these essays demonstrate that sustainable agricultural development and resilience in SSA require a nuanced understanding of both external constraints and intrinsic motivators shaping smallholder decisions. By integrating socio-economic and psychological factors, this research offers evidence-based recommendations for fostering equitable and sustainable rural development
Organisation(s): Institute of Environmental Economics and World Trade
Type: Doctoral thesis
No. of pages: 128
Publication date: 17.03.2025
Publication status: Published
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 1 - No Poverty, SDG 2 - Zero Hunger, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.15488/18589 (Access: Open)