Future land use and land cover in Southern Amazonia and resulting greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils

authored by: Jan Göpel, Jan Schüngel, Rüdiger Schaldach, Katharina H.E. Meurer, Hermann F. Jungkunst, Uwe Franko, Jens Boy, Robert Strey, Simone Strey, Georg Guggenberger, Anna Hampf, Phillip Parker
Abstract: The calculation of robust estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions due to agriculture is essential to support the framing of the Brazilian climate change mitigation policy. Information on the future development of land use and land cover change (LULCC) under the combination of various driving factors operating at different spatial scale levels, e.g., local land use policy and global demands for agricultural commodities, is required. The spatially explicit land use model, LandSHIFT, was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land use scenarios for Southern Amazonia. The time frame of the analysis was 2010–2030. Based on the generated maps, emission coefficients were applied to calculate annual N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂ emissions from agricultural soils (croplands and pastures). The results indicate that future land use pattern and the resultant greenhouse gas emissions in Southern Amazonia will be strongly determined by global and regional demands for agricultural commodities, as well as by the level of intensification of agriculture and the implementation of conservation policies.
Organisation(s): Institute of Soil Science
Section Soil Chemistry
External Organisation(s): University of Kassel
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
University of Koblenz-Landau
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)
Type: Article
Journal: Regional environmental change
Volume: 18
Pages: 129-142
No. of pages: 14
ISSN: 1436-3798
Publication date: 25.10.2017
Publication status: Published
Peer reviewed: Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas: Global and Planetary Change
Sustainable Development Goals: SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 15 - Life on Land
Electronic version(s): https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1235-0 (Access: Closed)