Microscopic traffic models, accidents, and insurance losses

authored by
Sojung Kim, Marcel Kleiber, Stefan Weber
Abstract

The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.

Organisation(s)
Institute of Actuarial and Financial Mathematics
Type
Article
Journal
ASTIN Bulletin
Volume
54
ISSN
0515-0361
Publication date
01.2024
Publication status
Published
Peer reviewed
Yes
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Accounting, Finance, Economics and Econometrics
Sustainable Development Goals
SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
Electronic version(s)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.12530 (Access: Open)
https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2023.36 (Access: Open)
https://doi.org/10.15488/16786 (Access: Open)