Microscopic traffic models, accidents, and insurance losses

verfasst von
Sojung Kim, Marcel Kleiber, Stefan Weber
Abstract

The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies.

Organisationseinheit(en)
Institut für Versicherungs- und Finanzmathematik
Typ
Artikel
Journal
ASTIN Bulletin
Band
54
ISSN
0515-0361
Publikationsdatum
01.2024
Publikationsstatus
Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed
Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Bilanzierung, Finanzwesen, Volkswirtschaftslehre und Ökonometrie
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
SDG 3 – Gute Gesundheit und Wohlergehen
Elektronische Version(en)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.12530 (Zugang: Offen)
https://doi.org/10.1017/asb.2023.36 (Zugang: Offen)
https://doi.org/10.15488/16786 (Zugang: Offen)