A cross-country model for end-use specific aggregated household load profiles

verfasst von: Marlon Schlemminger, Raphael Niepelt, Rolf Brendel
Abstract: End-use specific residential electricity load profiles are of interest for energy system modelling that requires future load curves or demand-side management. We present a model that is applicable across countries to predict consumption on a regional and national scale, using openly available data. The model uses neural networks (NNs) to correlate measured consumption from one country (United Kingdom) with weather data and daily profiles of a mix of human activity and device specific power profiles. We then use region-specific weather data and time-use surveys as input for the trained NNs to predict unscaled electric load profiles. The total power profile consists of the end-use household load profiles scaled with real consumption. We compare the model’s results with measured and independently simulated profiles of various European countries. The NNs achieve a mean absolute error compared with the average load of 6.5 to 33% for the test set. For Germany, the standard deviation between the simulation, the standard load profile H0, and measurements from the University of Applied Sciences Berlin is 26.5%. Our approach reduces the amount of input data required compared with existing models for modelling region-specific electricity load profiles considering end-uses and seasonality based on weather parameters. Hourly load profiles for 29 European countries based on four historical weather years are distributed under an open license.
Organisationseinheit(en): Abt. Solarenergie
Externe Organisation(en): Institut für Solarenergieforschung GmbH (ISFH)
Typ: Artikel
Journal: ENERGIES
Band: 14
ISSN: 1996-1073
Publikationsdatum: 13.04.2021
Publikationsstatus: Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed: Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete: Erneuerbare Energien, Nachhaltigkeit und Umwelt, Feuerungstechnik, Energieanlagenbau und Kraftwerkstechnik, Energie (sonstige), Steuerung und Optimierung, Elektrotechnik und Elektronik
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung: SDG 7 – Erschwingliche und saubere Energie, SDG 12 – Verantwortungsvoller Konsum und Produktion
Elektronische Version(en): https://doi.org/10.3390/en14082167 (Zugang: Offen)