The Changing Face of the AfD Electorate—A Longitudinal Analysis from 2013 to 2022

verfasst von: Christoph Kühling, Frederik Springer, Markus Klein
Abstract: The more than ten-year history of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is marked by continuous programmatic and personnel development. Starting out as an economically liberal, Eurosceptic party, the AfD quickly developed into a radical right party, which in recent years has increasingly moved in the direction of right-wing extremism. Previous analyses of the AfD’s changing electorate have only captured the party’s transformation from a Eurosceptic to a radical right party. In this research note, we argue that the looming transformation from a radical right to an extreme right party, like the transformation from a Eurosceptic to a radical right party, should lead to a gradual shift in the electorate. Assuming that extremism is considered taboo by many voters, we expect the AfD electorate to be increasingly dominated by far-right voters. Moreover, some sociodemographic groups are expected to be particularly repelled by the party’s extremist tendencies (the highly educated, western Germans, and civil servants), as they are more likely to reject extreme-right ideas. Our empirical analysis based on Politbarometer data from 2013 to 2022 largely confirms our expectations: First, we find that the effects of well-known predictors of AfD voting (general ideology, education, east–west) have increased further. Second, our analysis shows that an immunising effect of civil servant status has developed in parallel with the party shift towards extremism.
Organisationseinheit(en): Institut für Politikwissenschaft
Typ: Artikel
Journal: Politische Vierteljahresschrift
ISSN: 0720-4809
Publikationsdatum: 28.04.2025
Publikationsstatus: Elektronisch veröffentlicht (E-Pub)
Peer-reviewed: Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete: Soziologie und Politikwissenschaften
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung: SDG 16 – Frieden, Gerechtigkeit und starke Institutionen
Elektronische Version(en): https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-025-00612-y (Zugang: Unbekannt)
https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11615-025-00612-y (Zugang: Unbekannt)