Retrospective forecasts of the upcoming winter season snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters (European Alps)

verfasst von

Kristian Förster, Florian Hanzer, Elena Stoll, Adam A. Scaife, Craig MacLachlan, Johannes Schöber, Matthias Huttenlau, Stefan Achleitner, Ulrich Strasser

Abstract

This article presents analyses of retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow accumulation. Re-forecasts with 4 months' lead time from two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (NCEP CFSv2 and MetOffice GloSea5) drive the Alpine Water balance and Runoff Estimation model (AWARE) in order to predict mid-winter snow accumulation in the Inn headwaters. As snowpack is hydrological storage that evolves during the winter season, it is strongly dependent on precipitation totals of the previous months. Climate model (CM) predictions of precipitation totals integrated from November to February (NDJF) compare reasonably well with observations. Even though predictions for precipitation may not be significantly more skilful than for temperature, the predictive skill achieved for precipitation is retained in subsequent water balance simulations when snow water equivalent (SWE) in February is considered. Given the AWARE simulations driven by observed meteorological fields as a benchmark for SWE analyses, the correlation achieved using GloSea5-AWARE SWE predictions is r D0.57. The tendency of SWE anomalies (i.e. the sign of anomalies) is correctly predicted in 11 of 13 years. For CFSv2-AWARE, the corresponding values are r D0.28 and 7 of 13 years. The results suggest that some seasonal prediction of hydrological model storage tendencies in parts of Europe is possible.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft
Institut für Physische Geographie und Landschaftsökologie
AG Physische Geographie

Externe Organisation(en)

alpS GmbH
Universität Innsbruck
Universität Graz
Met Office
University of Exeter
Tiroler Wasserkraft AG (TIWAG)

Typ

Artikel

Journal

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Band

22

Seiten

1157-1173

Anzahl der Seiten

17

ISSN

1027-5606

Publikationsdatum

09.02.2018

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Gewässerkunde und -technologie, Erdkunde und Planetologie (sonstige)

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1157-2018 (Zugang: Offen)
https://doi.org/10.15488/3380 (Zugang: Offen)