Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities

verfasst von

Clemens Hübler, Raimund Rolfes

Abstract

When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Statik und Dynamik

Typ

Artikel

Journal

WIND ENERGY

Band

24

Seiten

275-289

Anzahl der Seiten

15

ISSN

1095-4244

Publikationsdatum

18.02.2021

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Erneuerbare Energien, Nachhaltigkeit und Umwelt

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 7 – Erschwingliche und saubere Energie, SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2572 (Zugang: Offen)