Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance

Verfasst von

Larissa Nora Van Der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, Kristian Förster

Abstract

We present the first study employing decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-Term projections of glacier contributions to catchment hydrology and sea-level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the predictive skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts over decadal timescales in two components: for a set of 279 reference glaciers, making use of their mass balance record, and all land-Terminating glaciers, making use of the globally available geodetic mass balance, respectively. Results show that forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts outperforms persistence forecasts and historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Specifically, out of 279 reference glaciers, 174 show improved skill when forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts for decadal mean mass balance and 186 show improved skill for cumulative mass balance. On a global scale, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields the best agreement with observed regional mean mass balances for the period 2000-2020. These findings demonstrate moderate improvements from using decadal re-forecasts, though statistical significance is limited. While improvements are modest, the results suggest decadal re-forecasts may offer potential for improved near-Term glacier predictions relevant to hydrological applications, particularly in regions where near-Term forecasts can inform water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.

Details

Organisationseinheit(en): Institut für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft
Externe Organisation(en): Københavns Universitet
Universität Bremen
Universität Innsbruck
Met Office
University of Exeter
University of Bristol
Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf
Typ: Artikel
Journal: CRYOSPHERE
Band: 19
Seiten: 3879-3896
Anzahl der Seiten: 18
ISSN: 1994-0416
Publikationsdatum: 16.09.2025
Publikationsstatus: Veröffentlicht
Peer-reviewed: Ja
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete: Gewässerkunde und -technologie, Erdoberflächenprozesse
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung: SDG 13 - Klimaschutzmaßnahmen
Elektronische Version(en): https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025 (Zugang: Offen )