Climate response to Nature Future scenarios in a regional Earth System Model

Abstract: Land use management can help address the human-induced climate and biodiversity crises. However, substantial transformations in land systems are needed to meet internationally agreed targets concerning nature conservation, restoration, sustainable agriculture, and tree cover. Such transformations influence land-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon, and could have particularly strong effects on local to regional climate through changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Here, we explore how land use management in Europe, consistent with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the Nature Futures Framework, and a sustainable low-emissions scenario, would affect the European climate mid-century. Using Earth System Modelling and detailed land use, habitat, and species projections, we show that policy implementation guided by relational values (Nature as Culture) could lead to additional warming and drying further threatening biodiversity and human well-being. Conversely, promoting intrinsic values (Nature for Nature) or ecosystem services (Nature for Society) would not add major challenges for climate adaptation and mitigation. These different outcomes highlight the need to develop integrative land use scenarios that enhance biodiversity and stabilise the climate, while considering feedbacks from land to the atmosphere. Such scenarios could help navigate trade-offs and inform policy implementation in Europe.