The Influence of the VUCA World on Production Systems

In today’s globalized and highly dynamic economy, manufacturing companies operate under conditions characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). These factors impact strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making, necessitating the development of resilient and resource-efficient production systems. However, the specific effects of the VUCA world on production systems remain insufficiently explored. This paper aims to address this gap by applying the scenario technique to analyze the influence of VUCA-induced change drivers on production system elements. The methodology follows a structured approach based on a scenario technique. It consists of five key phases: (1) defining the system scope, (2) identifying and prioritizing influencing factors, (3) developing future projections, (4) linking projections into consistent scenarios, and (5) transferring scenario results to determine affected system elements. The scenario analysis identifies critical change drivers such as market competition, price fluctuations, and shifts in make-or-buy strategies. Three exemplary scenarios are developed to illustrate the diverse challenges faced by manufacturing companies and to highlight the need for strategic adaptations. Findings from the scenario transfer phase indicates that the effects of a developed scenario can impact multiple areas of a production system, particularly in management structures, production processes, and supply chain strategies. However, the extent and intensity of these effects vary depending on the specific context, requiring a case-by-case interpretation. While the scenario technique provides valuable insights, certain methodological limitations remain, including the subjectivity inherent in extrapolating potential developments and evaluating the relationships between change drivers and system elements. Future research should focus on developing objective and quantifiable approaches to scenario impact assessment, as well as defining concrete measures to enhance production system resilience and resource efficiency. Addressing trade-offs between these two objectives will be crucial for ensuring long-term competitiveness in an increasingly uncertain market environment.