Prospects for solar photovoltaics in highly renewable energy transition scenarios towards a dominant future energy source

In this contribution, a systematic literature review on energy system transition studies with particular attention to the future role of solar photovoltaics (PV) is performed. In total, 60 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were reviewed in this analysis. Most studies find a combined share of 80% to 99% of solar PV and wind power in electricity generation by 2050, but the solar PV share varies widely between 5% and 98%. It is found that the share of solar PV in the electricity generation depends on both the available full load hours in the respective country and the techno-economic assumptions. However, many studies use outdated and too pessimistic techno-economic assumptions. About 18% of the studies analysed in this work assume specific capital expenditures of more than 500 €/kW for utility-scale solar PV by 2050. However, specific capital expenditures for solar PV below this value have already been achieved today. On the technological side, about a third of the investigated studies consider a generic solar PV power plant only. This neglects the wide variety of available solar PV technologies such as single-axis tracking, PV prosumers and floating PV. Based on all the studies examined, an empirical relationship between full load hours and the country-specific solar PV share is found. Applying this relationship globally yields a cross-study estimate for the global solar PV share in electricity generation by 2050. It is shown that solar PV emerges as the dominant energy source of the future with a global share of about 61%.