Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance

authored by

Larissa Nora Van Der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, Kristian Förster

Abstract

We present the first study employing decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-Term projections of glacier contributions to catchment hydrology and sea-level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the predictive skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts over decadal timescales in two components: for a set of 279 reference glaciers, making use of their mass balance record, and all land-Terminating glaciers, making use of the globally available geodetic mass balance, respectively. Results show that forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts outperforms persistence forecasts and historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Specifically, out of 279 reference glaciers, 174 show improved skill when forcing OGGM with decadal re-forecasts for decadal mean mass balance and 186 show improved skill for cumulative mass balance. On a global scale, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields the best agreement with observed regional mean mass balances for the period 2000-2020. These findings demonstrate moderate improvements from using decadal re-forecasts, though statistical significance is limited. While improvements are modest, the results suggest decadal re-forecasts may offer potential for improved near-Term glacier predictions relevant to hydrological applications, particularly in regions where near-Term forecasts can inform water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.

Organisation(s)

Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management

External Organisation(s)

University of Copenhagen
University of Bremen
University of Innsbruck
Met Office
University of Exeter
University of Bristol
University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf

Type

Article

Journal

CRYOSPHERE

Volume

19

Pages

3879-3896

No. of pages

18

ISSN

1994-0416

Publication date

16.09.2025

Publication status

Published

Peer reviewed

Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Water Science and Technology, Earth-Surface Processes

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 - Climate Action

Electronic version(s)

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025 (Access: Open)