Negotiating Futures

The negotiation of sustainable futures in coastal areas in the Anthropocene is characterized by profound uncertainties regarding climate change and the dynamics of sea-level rise (SLR). Particularly on the German North Sea coast, the technical protection of settlement areas increasingly competes with the preservation of dynamic ecosystems. For landscape architecture and spatial planning, existing communication formats often prove insufficient to make these complex interactions understandable for non-expert stakeholders. There is a lack of a methodologically sound framework that utilizes digital visualization techniques not merely as illustrative aids, but as reflexive tools for negotiating conflicting goals in real-world laboratories. Against this backdrop, the present thesis pursues two intertwined objectives: first, the explorative research of landscape architectural strategies as design-based approaches to possible futures; and second, the development of scenario-based visual futures that integrate uncertainty as a productive design element. Based on the hypothesis that visual futures are integral tools for knowledge production, a digitally expanded Research through Design (RtD) approach is developed. Embedded within the transdisciplinary real-world laboratory „Gute Küste Niedersachsen,“ this work establishes an iterative methodological triad: Within a hybrid co-design framework, qualitative stakeholder knowledge is first linked with quantitative climate projections. The landscape architectural synthesis is then achieved through a detailed visual workflow. Based on high-resolution, photogrammetrically generated digital twins of the real-world lab sites Spiekeroog and Neßmersiel, three strategic development paths are designed (Status Quo, Technical, Technical-Ecosystem-Enhancing). Using parametric modeling, real-time rendering, and supplementary Artificial Intelligence (AI), these spatial 3D models are translated into atmospherically dense scenarios. Methodologically, these function as boundary objects—robust enough to convey scientific evidence, yet open enough for societal interpretation. In the final co-evaluation, the designs are systematically tested with local stakeholders for their impact, comprehensibility, and acceptance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach: the atmospheric visual futures significantly contributed to the comprehension of complex systemic interrelations and made alternative courses of action spatially tangible. A clear acceptance and preference among stakeholders emerged for the integrative TÖSS path (Technical-Ecosystem-Enhancing). „Productive irritation“ proved to be a central feature in fostering understanding: precisely the criticism directed at specific design interpretations acted as a catalyst for an in-depth dialogue about values, feasibility, and systemic uncertainties. The thesis demonstrates that digital visualization in landscape architecture can assume a knowledge-generating (epistemic) function to structure a transparent societal dialogue on adaptation pathways. Finally, by conceptualizing Virtual Realworld Labs (V-RL), the dissertation outlines a visionary infrastructure for virtual real-world laboratory work, enabling global climate data to be negotiated in a democratic, participatory, and location-independent manner.