The IPCC uncertainty framework

what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

verfasst von

Margherita Harris

Abstract

In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

Organisationseinheit(en)

Institut für Philosophie

Typ

Meinungsbeitrag

Journal

CLIMATIC CHANGE

Band

178

Anzahl der Seiten

13

ISSN

0165-0009

Publikationsdatum

14.05.2025

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Globaler Wandel, Atmosphärenwissenschaften

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

SDG 13 – Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

Elektronische Version(en)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6 (Zugang: Geschlossen)